Sunday, February 7, 2010

A World of Uncertainties

I just ran into some comments that Daniel Yergin made in 2004 at a conference on U.S.-Saudi relations and global energy security at CSIS:
the U.S. really is on the threshold of a new era in natural gas, and this has major implications. In a sense the U.S. is today in natural gas where it was 30 years ago in oil, about to go from being a minor importer to being a major importer, and a decade from now the United States could literally overtake Japan as the world's number one importer of LNG.
I could have imagined myself in the audience taking notes, and accepting anything he had said about the future at face value, as a prophecy waiting to be fulfilled. Daniel Yergin knows the hydrocarbon business probably better than anyone, but even he couldn't see the unconventional gas revolution coming. Nobody could. There was uncertainty about technology, and hence about possible market outcomes. Here are Yergin's comments just over five years later.

I think I'm going to bookmark this post, and refer to it every time in the future when I get something completely wrong. Even the Daniel Yergins do.